Every option price contains a forecast. The expected move turns that forecast into a simple price range you can put on a chart.

How it is calculated

The quick version uses the at-the-money straddle: add the price of the ATM call and the ATM put for the expiry you care about. That total is roughly the move the market is pricing, up or down, by expiration.

For a single day, that gives you an upper and lower band around the previous close.

What it is good for

• Targets. If the expected move is 120 points and price has already moved 110, the easy part of the move is probably done.

• Context. A day that breaks well outside the expected move is unusual. That tells you something real is happening.

• Sizing. Bigger expected moves mean wider stops. Adjust size so your risk in dollars stays the same.

What it is not

The expected move is about one standard deviation. Price will close outside it on a meaningful share of days. Use it as a map, not a wall.

In HOC

The Options page shows the expected move for the nearest expiries, and it is part of the daily game plan so you have it before the open.

Next up: 0DTE options and how same-day expiries changed intraday trading.