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The initial balance: the first hour's map of the day

The initial balance: the first hour's map of the day

HOC Team

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2 min

Strategy

The initial balance: the first hour's map of the day

The initial balance (IB) is the high and low of the first 60 minutes of the regular session. For index futures that is 9:30 to 10:30 ET.

Why the first hour matters

The open is when the most participants arrive at once. The range they build in the first hour shows how much agreement there is about value for the day.

Narrow vs wide IB

  • Narrow IB: less agreement has been found yet. Range extension later in the day is more likely.

  • Wide IB: a lot was decided early. The rest of the day often stays inside it.

Range extension

When price breaks the IB high or low and holds, it is called range extension. A clean extension with strong delta often marks a trend day. A quick failure back inside the IB often leads to a move to the other side.

Simple rules many traders use

  • Mark the IB at 10:30 ET.

  • Expect a test of at least one side on most days.

  • Use 1.5x and 2x the IB range as extension targets.

  • Be cautious fading the first break on short gamma days.

In HOC Charts

The Sessions indicator draws the initial balance with optional extension levels, so it is on your chart the moment the first hour closes.

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